Tropical Storm OMAR
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 3 4
TROP DEPRESSION 7 4 6 5 7 8 10
TROPICAL STORM 89 74 59 46 44 41 42
HURRICANE 4 22 35 49 47 49 45
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 19 29 35 31 31 26
HUR CAT 2 X 2 3 10 11 11 12
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 3 5 5 5
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CURACAO 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PONCE 34 1 13(14) 23(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
PONCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X 8( 8) 25(33) 10(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 18(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 9( 9) 39(48) 16(64) 2(66) 1(67) X(67)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 34(54) 9(63) X(63) X(63)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 26(44) 6(50) 1(51) X(51)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 8(42) 1(43) X(43)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 6(36) 1(37) X(37)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 X 6( 6) 20(26) 10(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38)
AVES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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