Tropical Depression FIFTEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 2 4 11
TROP DEPRESSION 17 15 13 11 7 11 19
TROPICAL STORM 81 77 69 59 43 45 46
HURRICANE 2 7 16 28 47 40 24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 6 14 22 31 28 19
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 4 10 8 3
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 1 5 3 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 60KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CURACAO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 21(32) 11(43) 2(45) X(45)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 15(42) 2(44) 1(45)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 24(43) 3(46) X(46)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) 1(17)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 23(43) 3(46) X(46)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26(34) 6(40) 1(41)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 5(32) X(32)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 2(29)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) X(24)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 1(21)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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