Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2008
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  69.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N  70.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  69.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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