Hurricane OMAR

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HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE.  OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.  

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO
INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE
AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS
AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS
FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND
A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.1N  63.2W   110 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.7N  61.0W   110 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N  58.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N  55.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 33.5N  52.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.0N  45.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/0600Z 42.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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