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Hurricane OMAR (Text)

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HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
 
JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT...AND
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB.  ON THIS
BASIS...OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION...SHOWING
INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL.
 
OMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 050/17.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
FORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD.  OMAR IS
EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.  WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP
OMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH
ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES.  THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH SOME
SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.  THIS
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24
HOURS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...
OMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS.  IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 17.4N  64.5W   100 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.4N  63.1W   105 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 22.2N  61.2W   100 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N  59.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.6N  57.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  53.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  41.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/0000Z 47.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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