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Hurricane KYLE (Text)

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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
 
KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY
FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80
KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD
TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER
DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10
KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996
MB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD
BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT
KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR
MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH
COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG
40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY
LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND
PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 38.4N  69.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  68.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 45.2N  66.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  64.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  64.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 50.8N  63.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
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FORECASTER STEWART
 
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