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Hurricane KYLE (Text)

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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG
WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR.  WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT...THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
COVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT
HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WITH THE CENTER
REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB.  THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD
MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.

KYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...
AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND
CALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW
BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT
SHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL
FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR
AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME.
 
KYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD
ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS 
FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR
AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL.  AFTER
LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...WITH THE
CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 34.3N  69.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 37.2N  69.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 41.3N  68.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 45.3N  66.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 48.3N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 51.5N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
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FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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