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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  46                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       9      30      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X      39      58      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X      15      50      13      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       99      84       2       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      56       2       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       56      20       1       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       29       8       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        2       1       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    80KT    40KT    30KT    NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GULFPORT MS    34  9   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BURAS LA       34 29   2(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSON MS     34  2   6( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 34   4(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 46   7(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 73   4(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
NEW IBERIA LA  50 12   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34 10  32(42)  10(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 79  16(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 47  34(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  4  44(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 85  13(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GALVESTON TX   50 73  23(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GALVESTON TX   64 15  61(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 66  29(95)   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
HOUSTON TX     50 27  61(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
HOUSTON TX     64  2  48(50)   4(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  8  32(40)   4(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
AUSTIN TX      50  X  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
AUSTIN TX      64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  6  15(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 79  17(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
FREEPORT TX    50 56  32(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
FREEPORT TX    64  8  46(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 90   5(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 82   5(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 28  15(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 51  20(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
PORT O CONNOR  50 12  16(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 14  10(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 43   5(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  6   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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