Tropical Storm IKE

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TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
IKE IS STEADILY WINDING DOWN AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT IKE IS BARELY
ABOVE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD...DESPITE THE RATHER LOW PRESSURE OF
980.7 MB RECENTLY REPORTED AT TYLER TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST OT MERGE WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...
AFTER WHICH THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...AND THEN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/16.  IKE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH ARKANSAS...
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS..AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOSTILE
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF MORE THAN 110 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
 
ALTHOUGH IKE IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN
LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 32.4N  95.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 35.1N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 38.9N  88.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 43.0N  80.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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