Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT.  IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS.  GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 23.2N  84.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 23.9N  85.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 24.6N  87.1W    90 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.6N  91.1W   105 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  95.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 30.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  97.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 
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