Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING.  AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC.  SINCE THAT
TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD
CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE
T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE
2045 UTC.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET 
AT 115 KT...MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS
WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  HOWEVER 
BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN
24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE
LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE 
WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE GFDL IS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN
THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
HWRF...THE 12Z ECMWF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 22.1N  54.1W   115 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.2W   115 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N  58.7W   105 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.3N  61.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 23.8N  63.6W   100 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  68.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  72.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N  75.5W   115 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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