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Tropical Storm IKE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
 
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE
HAS ERODED A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 
REGARDLESS...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT
AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME...AND SUGGEST
THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
BEYOND 48 HOURS.  BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A
POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12...WITHIN IN THE DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET IS THE ONLY
GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A
SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA. ACCORDINGLY...THE NHC FORECAST IS
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 18.0N  41.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N  43.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N  46.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  49.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.8N  52.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N  59.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
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