Tropical Depression EIGHT
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 3 1 1 1 3
TROP DEPRESSION 32 20 16 10 4 4 6
TROPICAL STORM 66 73 69 57 32 27 32
HURRICANE 1 5 12 32 63 68 59
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 10 25 35 33 29
HUR CAT 2 X X 2 5 16 20 14
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 9 12 13
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 3 3 2
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 55KT 70KT 75KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: