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Hurricane GUSTAV


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008               
0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1      14      38      58      67      74
TROP DEPRESSION  X       8      43      35      24      18      13
TROPICAL STORM   X      70      34      19      11       9       7
HURRICANE       99      21       9       8       8       7       7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5      11       3       2       1       1       X
HUR CAT 2       48       5       2       2       2       1       2
HUR CAT 3       43       5       3       2       2       2       2
HUR CAT 4        3       1       1       2       1       2       2
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  100KT    55KT    35KT    25KT    20KT    20KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
APALACHICOLA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 17   3(20)   X(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   1(23)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34 55   1(56)   1(57)   X(57)   1(58)   1(59)   1(60)
MOBILE AL      50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 85   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
GULFPORT MS    50 18   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   1(20)   X(20)
GULFPORT MS    64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURAS LA       50 96   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
BURAS LA       64 54   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 67   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
JACKSON MS     34 36  10(46)   1(47)   1(48)   1(49)   X(49)   1(50)
JACKSON MS     50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 98   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 87   2(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   1(90)   X(90)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 43   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 30   1(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   1(33)   X(33)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 73  13(86)   1(87)   X(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 21  25(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 95   3(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA  50 68  18(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   1(87)
NEW IBERIA LA  64 16  36(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   1(54)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 34   8(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)   1(45)   X(45)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  6  26(32)   6(38)   2(40)   2(42)   X(42)   1(43)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 30  29(59)   3(62)   1(63)   1(64)   X(64)   1(65)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  2  10(12)   3(15)   1(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  7  16(23)   4(27)   2(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  4  13(17)   5(22)   2(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  4   8(12)   3(15)   2(17)   3(20)   1(21)   1(22)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  4   5( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   3(17)   1(18)   1(19)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   2(14)   1(15)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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