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Tropical Storm GUSTAV


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008               
1800 UTC MON AUG 25 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2       4       9      12      16
TROP DEPRESSION  X       5      11       9      18      14      15
TROPICAL STORM  75      56      50      40      51      43      41
HURRICANE       25      39      36      47      22      31      28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       23      34      30      33      16      22      19
HUR CAT 2        1       4       4      10       4       6       7
HUR CAT 3        X       1       2       4       2       3       2
HUR CAT 4        1       1       X       1       X       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    65KT    65KT    70KT    55KT    60KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   6(22)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   6(26)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   8(29)   4(33)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   7(24)   3(27)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)  11(26)   5(31)   2(33)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   6(20)   2(22)   2(24)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   8(23)   3(26)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  18(33)  11(44)   5(49)   1(50)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   8(18)   1(19)   1(20)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   2(16)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   2(19)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  1  13(14)  27(41)   7(48)   5(53)   1(54)   1(55)
LES CAYES      50  X   2( 2)  12(14)   7(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1  32(33)  24(57)   4(61)   5(66)   X(66)   1(67)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   7( 7)  15(22)   3(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 21  49(70)   5(75)   2(77)   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)
CAPE BEATA     50  2  26(28)   3(31)   1(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   4(15)   5(20)   2(22)   1(23)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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