Tropical Storm FAY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 3 9 28 50
TROP DEPRESSION 6 11 7 9 5 25 21
TROPICAL STORM 90 73 52 37 39 26 14
HURRICANE 4 15 40 51 48 21 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 13 33 32 31 12 7
HUR CAT 2 X 1 5 12 11 6 4
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 5 5 2 3
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 1 1 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 65KT 30KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 4(22)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 5(21)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 4(28)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 2(23)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 10(31) 2(33)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 26(37) 7(44) 2(46)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 24(43) 5(48) 1(49)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 19(31) 19(50) 3(53) 1(54)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 16(42) 3(45) 1(46)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 12(40) 3(43) 1(44)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 11(30) 8(38) 2(40) 1(41)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 1 10(11) 17(28) 10(38) 5(43) X(43) 1(44)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MARATHON FL 34 4 29(33) 18(51) 5(56) 3(59) X(59) 1(60)
MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 4 43(47) 20(67) 5(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 10(10) 12(22) 3(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27)
KEY WEST FL 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARCO ISLAND 34 1 15(16) 32(48) 14(62) 5(67) 1(68) 1(69)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) 1(24)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 9( 9) 30(39) 20(59) 7(66) 1(67) 1(68)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 22(54) 10(64) 2(66) 1(67)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 7(29) 1(30) 1(31)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12)
TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 24(43) 16(59) 2(61) 2(63)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 22(49) 5(54) 1(55)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) 1(24)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 7(37) 1(38)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 21(33) 7(40) 1(41)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 19(32) 6(38) 1(39)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 17(37) 5(42) 1(43)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 1(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 5(29) 1(30)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 1(20)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 7(22) 1(23) 1(24)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12)
HAVANA 34 14 49(63) 8(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
HAVANA 50 2 16(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
HAVANA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 5 11(16) 6(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
ISLE OF PINES 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 84 2(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88)
CIENFUEGOS 50 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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