Tropical Storm DOLLY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 9 51 X X
TROP DEPRESSION X 4 3 31 28 X X
TROPICAL STORM 29 29 50 47 15 X X
HURRICANE 70 66 46 14 6 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 65 46 34 8 3 X X
HUR CAT 2 5 17 9 4 2 X X
HUR CAT 3 X 3 2 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 60KT 40KT 20KT 0KT 0KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 10 7(17) 2(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GALVESTON TX 34 5 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
HOUSTON TX 34 2 8(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
AUSTIN TX 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
FREEPORT TX 34 7 13(20) 5(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 16 19(35) 4(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT O CONNOR 34 8 22(30) 7(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 10 31(41) 14(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 48 25(73) 4(77) 1(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 2 20(22) 5(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 47 38(85) 5(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 3 42(45) 11(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 14(14) 9(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 65 22(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 12 29(41) 2(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
LA PESCO MX 34 9 18(27) 9(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
LA PESCO MX 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TAMPICO MX 34 4 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
TUXPAN MX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
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