Tropical Storm DOLLY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1545 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008
AT 1545Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 6 6 12 18 36
TROP DEPRESSION 10 24 19 16 21 12 27
TROPICAL STORM 88 69 67 60 45 47 28
HURRICANE 3 5 8 18 23 24 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 4 6 15 18 18 7
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 3 4 2
HUR CAT 3 1 X 1 1 2 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 3(19)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 4(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 4(24)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 4(23)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 9(27) 4(31)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 3(29)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 8(39) 1(40)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 2(21)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
MERIDA MX 34 1 30(31) 21(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) 1(55)
MERIDA MX 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
MERIDA MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
COZUMEL MX 34 19 52(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
COZUMEL MX 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BELIZE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLE OF PINES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: