Hurricane DOLLY

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HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA
AIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON
THIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A
COOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY
A NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER
SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS
IN THE CASE OF THE GFS.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE
VARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. 
AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
LOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 25.1N  96.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 26.1N  98.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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