Tropical Storm DOLLY

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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN
OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY
STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER.  CONVECTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS
HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
UPWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT
LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.

FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE
MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED
THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
 
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 24.0N  94.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 24.8N  95.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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