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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008               
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2       8      17      31       X
TROP DEPRESSION  X       3      13      30      32      34       X
TROPICAL STORM  71      64      72      54      44      31       X
HURRICANE       29      33      13       7       8       4       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       28      30      12       6       7       4       X
HUR CAT 2        X       3       2       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    60KT    50KT    40KT    35KT    25KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   3( 3)  45(48)   9(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:08 UTC