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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008               
1500 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2       7       X       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION 11      11      13      23       X       X       X
TROPICAL STORM  87      78      71      59       X       X       X
HURRICANE        3      11      14      12       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2      10      13      10       X       X       X
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    50KT    45KT     0KT     0KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 25   9(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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