Hurricane BERTHA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008               
1500 UTC THU JUL 10 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       3       9
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1       3       8      19
TROPICAL STORM   3       6      10      21      31      43      45
HURRICANE       97      94      89      78      65      46      28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       60      40      39      42      36      30      20
HUR CAT 2       32      39      32      21      17      10       6
HUR CAT 3        4      13      15      12       9       4       2
HUR CAT 4        X       2       3       2       3       1       1
HUR CAT 5        1       1       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    85KT    85KT    80KT    75KT    65KT    55KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)  15(35)   6(41)   2(43)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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