Tropical Weather Summary

000
ABNT30 KNHC 011226
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

EIGHT TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING
SEPTEMBER...TYING 2002 FOR THE RECORD OF THE MOST FORMATIONS DURING
THE MONTH.  THREE OF THE STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...BUT ONLY
ONE OF THESE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF
TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER...
MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WERE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.  AS A RESULT...
THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...A MEASURE OF THE
COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...WAS
BELOW AVERAGE AND WAS THE LOWEST TOTAL OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN SINCE 1997.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ALSO FORMED DURING THE
MONTH.

FELIX FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA ON 24 AUGUST.  THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 28 AUGUST...AND THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 31 AUGUST ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.  THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT PASSED NEAR GRENADA AND THE GRENADINES EARLY ON 1
SEPTEMBER.  FELIX MOVED WESTWARD AND INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE
LATER THAT DAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  RAPID
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED...AND FELIX BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. 
THE HURRICANE WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 3 ON 3 SEPTEMBER AS IT UNDERWENT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  IT THEN RE-INTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY 5
STATUS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON 4 SEPTEMBER NEAR PUNTA GORDA
NICARAGUA.  FELIX WEAKENED QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AND BECAME A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON 5 SEPTEMBER. 
THE REMNANTS OF FELIX MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC WHERE THEY DISSIPATED
ON 9 SEPTEMBER.

MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FELIX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 101 DEATHS IN
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH MORE THAN 100 OTHERS REPORTED MISSING
AS OF THIS WRITING.  THE HURRICANE CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGES IN THE
LANDFALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS BUILDINGS
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS.  ADDITIONAL DAMAGES OCCURRED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  FELIX ALSO PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGES ON
GRENADA...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

GABRIELLE DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT
FORMED ON 3 SEPTEMBER. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS LOW MOVED
SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND BERMUDA. THE LOW BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE ON 7 SEPTEMBER AND
BECAME A SUBTROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 8 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. AS GABRIELLE MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD IT ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. GABRIELLE STRENGTHENED EARLY ON 9
SEPTEMBER AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 MPH WHILE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW HOURS
LATER...THE TROPICAL STORM MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT
NATIONAL SEASHORE. AFTER LANDFALL GABRIELLE TURNED NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.
GABRIELLE MOVED BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...EXITING THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR KILL DEVIL HILLS EARLY ON 10 SEPTEMBER...AND
THEN WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A FEW HOURS LATER. THE NEXT
DAY THE CIRCULATION BECAME ILL-DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION
DISSIPATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE WAS CONFINED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR
CAPE LOOKOUT...AND OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM GABRIELLE IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA WERE MINIMAL. 

HUMBERTO FORMED FROM THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON 5 SEPTEMBER.  THE WESTERN END OF THE
TROUGH MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WAS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON 11 SEPTEMBER.  ON THE
MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASED NEAR
THE TROUGH AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED LATER THAT DAY
ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.  THE DEPRESSION
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM A FEW HOURS LATER AS IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  HUMBERTO TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE
ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EARLY ON 13
SEPTEMBER.  THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND NEAR 0700 UTC THAT DAY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 MPH.
HUMBERTO MOVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER ON 13 SEPTEMBER
ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.  THE STORM
SOON BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND
DISSIPATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON 14 SEPTEMBER.  THE
MEDIA REPORTED ONE FATALITY DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HUMBERTO AND
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES OF LESS THAN 500 MILLION DOLLARS.

INGRID DEVELOPED FROM A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 6 SEPTEMBER. AT THAT TIME...STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WAS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND IT WAS NOT
UNTIL 9 SEPTEMBER THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BECAME PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW ON 11 SEPTEMBER. BY THE
MORNING OF 12 SEPTEMBER...WHEN THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1125
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE SYSTEM FINALLY ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE DEPRESSION MOVED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN
WEAK STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. DESPITE MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...THE
CYCLONE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 14 SEPTEMBER WHILE
CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND REACHED
ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 MPH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. THE SHEAR
THEN INCREASED AND INGRID WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 15
SEPTEMBER. THE STRONG SHEAR PERSISTED AND INGRID DEGENERATED TO A
BROAD REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 115 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED IN PART FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BECAME STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST ON 17
SEPTEMBER.  ON 18 SEPTEMBER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMED OVER
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING OVER OVER THE BAHAMAS.  THESE FEATURES
COMBINED TO PRODUCE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS LATER THAT DAY.  THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING 19-20 SEPTEMBER.  ON 21
SEPTEMBER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED THAT DAY ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.  THE SYSTEM GAINED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER THAT DAY AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS
IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...BUT ITS MAXIMUM WINDS NEVER EXCEEDED 35
MPH.  THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL LATE ON 21 SEPTEMBER NEAR FORT
WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...AND IT DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS LATER. 
IMPACTS IN THE AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION WERE MINIMAL.

JERRY FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES EARLY ON 23 SEPTEMBER.  IT
BEGAN AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS
WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY...BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH.  JERRY ACQUIRED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS VERY EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER AS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT NEVER
GAINED ANY MORE STRENGTH.  JERRY WEAKENED BACK TO A DEPRESSION
LATER THAT DAY AS IT ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND IT DISSIPATED NEAR THE END OF THAT DAY
WHEN IT LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION.  BY THEN THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT
800 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

KAREN FORMED EARLY ON 25 SEPTEMBER OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL DAYS
EARLIER.  AFTER FORMATION...THE CYCLONE QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.  KAREN MOVED MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHENED TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON
26 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  A LITTLE LATER THAT DAY...HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED KAREN TO BEGIN WEAKENING.  AS THE SHEAR
INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUED
TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  KAREN EVENTUALLY WEAKENED TO A
DEPRESSION ON 29 SEPTEMBER AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 500
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  CURRENTLY...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A LARGE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

LORENZO FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 25 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. 
THE DEPRESSION MEANDERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHOUT
DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY...BUT ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED ON 27
SEPTEMBER...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN.  LORENZO CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVED WESTWARD...BECOMING A HURRICANE VERY EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER. 
LORENZO'S PEAK WINDS REACHED 80 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY JUST
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH 75 MPH WINDS EARLY ON 28 SEPTEMBER
SOUTH OF TUXPAN.  LORENZO WEAKENED RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATED LATER THAT
DAY.  MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT THREE PERSONS WERE KILLED IN A
MUD SLIDE IN THE STATE OF PUEBLA...AND THAT THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES IN THE TOWN OF NAUTLA. 

MELISSA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA ON
26 SEPTEMBER.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED THE NEXT DAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW ABRUPTLY INCREASED EARLY ON 28
SEPTEMBER...AND THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT
DAY ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY WHILE INCHING
WESTWARD...AND IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 29 SEPTEMBER. 
AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 MPH LATE THAT DAY...THE
STORM WEAKENED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR...WHILE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IT
AGAIN BECAME A DEPRESSION EARLY ON 30 SEPTEMBER.  THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THEN BECAME INTERMITTENT...AND LATER THAT DAY THE
DEPRESSION DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


SUMMARY TABLE 

NAME               DATES        MAX WIND    DEATHS    U.S. DAMAGE
                                  MPH                  $MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
H  FELIX        31 AUG - 5 SEP     165        101
TS GABRIELLE     8-11 SEPTEMBER     50
H  HUMBERTO     12-14 SEPTEMBER     85          1        500
TS INGRID       12-17 SEPTEMBER     45 
TD TEN          21-22 SEPTEMBER     35
TS JERRY        23-24 SEPTEMBER     40
TS KAREN        25-29 SEPTEMBER     70
H  LORENZO      25-28 SEPTEMBER     80          3
TS MELISSA      28-30 SEPTEMBER     45
--------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
* UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA/BROWN/BLAKE/RHOME/KNABB/FRANKLIN/PASCH