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Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 198N 1100W 34 34   4(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 12 198N 1100W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 198N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 198N 1122W 34  X  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 24 198N 1122W 50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 198N 1122W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 199N 1145W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 199N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 199N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 202N 1167W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 202N 1167W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 202N 1167W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 215N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 215N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 215N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      30      25      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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