Tropical Storm KIKO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 197N 1086W 34 56   3(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 12 197N 1086W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 197N 1086W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 199N 1100W 34  5  11(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 24 199N 1100W 50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 199N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 200N 1118W 34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 200N 1118W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 200N 1118W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 202N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 48 202N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 202N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 215N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 72 215N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 215N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 230N 1215W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 230N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 230N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      25      25      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN