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Tropical Storm KIKO (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   2( 4)   9(13)   7(20)   3(23)   X(23)   1(24)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2   2( 4)   7(11)   6(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   X( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P VALLARTA     34  5   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   2( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 12  10(22)   3(25)   X(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 198N 1075W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 198N 1075W 50 75   3(78)   1(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 12 198N 1075W 64 17   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 24 202N 1082W 34 74  10(84)   3(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 202N 1082W 50 18  20(38)   6(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 202N 1082W 64  3   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 36 206N 1093W 34 11  29(40)  19(59)   6(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 36 206N 1093W 50  X   8( 8)  11(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 36 206N 1093W 64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 48 211N 1108W 34  2   5( 7)  20(27)  13(40)   7(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 48 211N 1108W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 48 211N 1108W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 220N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 72 220N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 72 220N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 230N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 96 230N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 230N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 235N 1215W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 235N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 235N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     60      60      55      45      30      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC