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TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
0300 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 8(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 7(22)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 3(16)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 3(25)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 9(29) 4(33) 2(35)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 11(12) 14(26) 12(38) 6(44) 2(46) 2(48)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 1 9(10) 13(23) 9(32) 6(38) 2(40) 2(42)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 4(22)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 12(25) 7(32) 3(35)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 172N 1049W 34 55 16(71) 6(77) 2(79) 2(81) X(81) 1(82)
12 172N 1049W 50 3 6( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20)
12 172N 1049W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
24 177N 1053W 34 26 33(59) 10(69) 5(74) 2(76) 1(77) 1(78)
24 177N 1053W 50 1 10(11) 6(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) 1(25)
24 177N 1053W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
36 182N 1057W 34 8 32(40) 17(57) 8(65) 5(70) 1(71) 2(73)
36 182N 1057W 50 X 5( 5) 11(16) 7(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27)
36 182N 1057W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 188N 1065W 34 1 14(15) 23(38) 15(53) 8(61) 3(64) 2(66)
48 188N 1065W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 6(24) 2(26) 1(27)
48 188N 1065W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
72 195N 1075W 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 21(36) 13(49) 6(55) 3(58)
72 195N 1075W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 1(21)
72 195N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
96 205N 1085W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 15(31) 10(41) 5(46)
96 205N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13)
96 205N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
120 215N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 8(25)
120 215N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
120 215N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 50 60 70 75 80 80
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC