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Tropical Storm KIKO (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
2100 UTC THU OCT 18 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   8(20)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   7(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   5(21)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  11(19)   6(25)   3(28)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  10(18)  12(30)   6(36)   2(38)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   7( 8)  19(27)  12(39)   8(47)   4(51)   1(52)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1  10(11)  18(29)  10(39)   7(46)   3(49)   2(51)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  5  12(17)   7(24)   4(28)   5(33)   1(34)   1(35)
L CARDENAS     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   6( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   5(19)   1(20)   1(21)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)  14(23)  10(33)   4(37)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1037W 34 51  18(69)   6(75)   2(77)   2(79)   1(80)   X(80)
 12 172N 1037W 50  3   6( 9)   7(16)   2(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 12 172N 1037W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 177N 1039W 34 28  26(54)  10(64)   4(68)   3(71)   1(72)   1(73)
 24 177N 1039W 50  2   7( 9)   7(16)   4(20)   2(22)   1(23)   1(24)
 24 177N 1039W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
 36 183N 1045W 34  6  24(30)  19(49)   8(57)   5(62)   2(64)   2(66)
 36 183N 1045W 50  X   4( 4)  10(14)   5(19)   4(23)   1(24)   1(25)
 36 183N 1045W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
 48 189N 1051W 34  1  11(12)  22(34)  11(45)   8(53)   4(57)   1(58)
 48 189N 1051W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   6(21)   3(24)   X(24)
 48 189N 1051W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
 
 72 195N 1060W 34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  15(32)  11(43)   8(51)   2(53)
 72 195N 1060W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   4(19)   1(20)
 72 195N 1060W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 210N 1075W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)  14(23)  14(37)   5(42)
 96 210N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)
 96 210N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 220N 1095W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   7(25)
120 220N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
120 220N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     50      60      70      80      85      85
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC