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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N 1087W 34 34  12(46)   3(49)   2(51)   1(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 12 143N 1087W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 143N 1087W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 144N 1084W 34 28  13(41)   3(44)   3(47)   1(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 24 144N 1084W 50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 24 144N 1084W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 146N 1083W 34 23  11(34)   5(39)   3(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)
 36 146N 1083W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 146N 1083W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 147N 1085W 34 25  10(35)   4(39)   3(42)   2(44)   1(45)   1(46)
 48 147N 1085W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 48 147N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 150N 1090W 34 17   8(25)   4(29)   6(35)   2(37)   1(38)   1(39)
 72 150N 1090W 50  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 150N 1090W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 155N 1095W 34  4   4( 8)   5(13)   8(21)   4(25)   1(26)   1(27)
 96 155N 1095W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 96 155N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 160N 1100W 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   2(17)   1(18)
120 160N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
120 160N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      35      35      35      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN