Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 153N 1089W 34 35 14(49) 6(55) 1(56) 2(58) X(58) 1(59)
12 153N 1089W 50 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
12 153N 1089W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 156N 1089W 34 28 16(44) 6(50) 2(52) 2(54) 1(55) 1(56)
24 156N 1089W 50 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13)
24 156N 1089W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 159N 1089W 34 19 17(36) 8(44) 4(48) 3(51) 2(53) X(53)
36 159N 1089W 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13)
36 159N 1089W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 163N 1090W 34 7 18(25) 11(36) 4(40) 5(45) 2(47) 1(48)
48 163N 1090W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
48 163N 1090W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
72 169N 1094W 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 6(30) 6(36) 3(39) X(39)
72 169N 1094W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
72 169N 1094W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 175N 1100W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 7(25) 3(28) 2(30)
96 175N 1100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
96 175N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 183N 1110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 2(19)
120 183N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
120 183N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 45 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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