ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007 ...KIKO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES...245 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. KIKO IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF KIKO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...103.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC