Tropical Storm KIKO
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TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
0300 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. WARNINGS AND WATCHES COULD BE
ADJUSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 90SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 180SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 104.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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