ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007 IT HAD BEEN NEARLY 10 HOURS SINCE KIKO PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...JUST AS THE CLOCK WAS ABOUT TO HIT DOUBLE ZERO...UTC...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED...AND KIKO'S TIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF KIKO APPEARS QUITE HOSTILE...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. THE FORECAST INDICATES NO WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. KIKO COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOONER...IF IT FAILS TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS IN A FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.4N 110.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.1N 114.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC