ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007 KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE DATA T-NUMBERS. QUIKSCAT WAS SCHEDULED TO PASS OVER THE CYCLONE A SHORT TIME AGO...AND DATA FROM THIS PASS SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. EVEN THOUGH KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS...SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE GFDL MAINTAINS KIKO AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE PREDICT A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT KIKO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. A TIMELY 2356 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF KIKO THIS EVENING. THIS IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES...SUGGEST THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/3. KIKO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THEY ALL PREDICT THAT KIKO WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFDL REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 19.6N 108.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.9N 110.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 111.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC