ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KIKO HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...LIMITED...AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS TREND. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...INCREASING STABILITY....AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT KIKO WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. IT APPEARS THAT KIKO IS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH SOME EVEN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFDL REMAINS THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER BUT EVEN THAT MODEL NOW BYPASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS KIKO TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS FULLY MATERIALIZED...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.5N 107.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 109.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.7N 112.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC