ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH BANDS OF CURVED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. A 0100 UTC MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALSO LESSENED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SEPARATE FROM THE ITCZ. WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF THE STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A MODERATE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AND KIKO'S INTENSITY COULD LEVEL OFF BY THEN...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE CENTER OF KIKO HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK TODAY...EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE RECENT CENTER REFORMATION DOESN'T HELP MATTERS. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST...315/3. THIS LEFTWARD TURN MAY BE DUE TO A RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER MEXICO FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WITH RIDGING FORECAST OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO WILL BE STEERED IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS NEW MOTION AND NOW EITHER KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OR HAVE THE CYCLONE JUST BRUSH THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.7N 104.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 104.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.7N 105.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC