ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007 DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A BROKEN BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER HOWEVER. A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. AN SSM/I OVERPASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO WAS HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE CENTER POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS PRACTICALLY STATIONARY. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE WITH VERY WEAK...OR NO...MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING. THE GFS DOES BUILD A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE FROM THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH IT IS NOW EMBEDDED. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERSIFIED. THE ECMWF AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST IN 5 DAYS WHILE OTHER MODELS MOVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD...NORTHWESTWARD...OR WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS A SMALL LOOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT NOT AS FAST. AN EASTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS EXISTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS... INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF ADVISORY PACKAGES. THIS IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF PREDICTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.4N 108.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.3N 108.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 108.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 108.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.7N 108.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC