ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2007 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED EAST OF THE LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUDS TOPS...DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES AND SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION MOVED VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL THAT THE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IS RATHER SMALL...WITH MOST OF THE COLD CLOUDS BEING ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE CENTER LOCATIONS OF THESE FIXES WERE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ARE LESS BULLISH IN DECREASING THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHEAR 15 KT OR GREATER THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 330/2. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS RESULT FROM THE LACK OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...DUE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT COULD GET PULLED EASTWARD BY A LARGE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE NEAR MEXICO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE....WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IN THESE MODELS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE MODELS...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.2N 108.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.3N 108.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 15.6N 108.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 16.3N 109.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 16.9N 109.4W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 110.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.3N 111.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC