ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A SHRINKING AND WEAKENING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. IF JULIETTE DOES NOT GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JULIETTE HAS NOT DECELERATED IN ITS FORWARD MOTION YET...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THIS CONTINUED PACE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.7N 115.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.7N 115.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 24.7N 116.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1800Z 25.1N 116.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC