ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007 AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE CENTER OF JULIETTE...WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. A LATE-ARRIVING QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS. ASSUMING WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF JULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...JULIETTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECELERATE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 115.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 23.6N 116.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC