ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 200 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007 A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF JULIETTE IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LAGGING BEHIND THE DEEP CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z ALSO PLACED THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE QUIKSCAT DATA INCLUDED A 50 KT VECTOR THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN VALID...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION SEEM TO BE SEPARATING...I'D PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL. WITH THE EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST. AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD DECELERATE IN THE WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO A HALT AFTER 36 HOURS AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION. IF THE CYCLONE SUCCUMBS TO THE SHEAR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND THIS PROCESS MAY ALREADY BE BEGINNING...THEN THE STALL WOULD OCCUR EARLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.0N 114.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.1N 115.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/0600Z 24.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC