ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT PERSISTS AND THE MOST RECENT BURST EXHIBITS CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED AND HARD TO PRECISELY LOCATE...MAKING SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AND DISPARATE...WITH 00Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT GIVEN THE INCONSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS IMMINENT. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE OF DECLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS. JULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ROUGHLY 320/9...IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST. AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD DECELERATE IN THE WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST TAKES JULIETTE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW ON A PATH THAT BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO A HALT IN A FEW DAYS AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 20.2N 114.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 21.6N 115.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 22.9N 116.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.8N 116.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC