ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007 800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007 WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTED OVER THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING FOR THIRTEEN-E. HAVING SAID THAT...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. IF A SOUTHWARD TURN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO SURVIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/05. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLEX. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.8N 129.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 130.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.6N 130.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.2N 130.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC