ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007 200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007 THE DEPRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM. HOWEVER....A SMALL BURST OF NEW CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS RATHER HOSTILE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AS CONVECTION COULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...STABLE AIR...COOLER SST...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.4N 128.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.1N 130.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.4N 130.6W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC