Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007
THE DEPRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM. HOWEVER....A SMALL BURST OF NEW
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS RATHER HOSTILE.
HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
IN THE SHORT-TERM AS CONVECTION COULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...STABLE
AIR...COOLER SST...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT
HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AT 48 AND 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.4N 128.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.1N 130.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.4N 130.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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