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Tropical Depression TWELVE-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E                                        
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007               
1700 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  17(28)   3(31)   1(32)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 139N 1090W 34 13   8(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 12 139N 1090W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 139N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 147N 1112W 34  X  23(23)  12(35)   2(37)   1(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 24 147N 1112W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 147N 1112W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 155N 1128W 34  X   4( 4)  24(28)  10(38)   4(42)   1(43)   X(43)
 36 155N 1128W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 36 155N 1128W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 164N 1141W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  17(28)  10(38)   2(40)   X(40)
 48 164N 1141W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 48 164N 1141W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 185N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  17(26)   5(31)   X(31)
 72 185N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 185N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 200N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   1(22)
 96 200N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 200N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 210N 1130W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
120 210N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
120 210N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     35      40      45      50      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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