ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 10(20) 2(22) 1(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 12 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
MANZANILLO 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 18(38) 9(47) 2(49) X(49)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 185N 1057W 34 85 5(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
12 185N 1057W 50 16 8(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
12 185N 1057W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 192N 1074W 34 4 63(67) 10(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
24 192N 1074W 50 X 21(21) 10(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
24 192N 1074W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
36 195N 1090W 34 1 23(24) 35(59) 8(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72)
36 195N 1090W 50 X 4( 4) 18(22) 7(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31)
36 195N 1090W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
48 200N 1105W 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 22(51) 11(62) 1(63) 1(64)
48 200N 1105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24)
48 200N 1105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
72 215N 1130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 24(36) 6(42) 2(44)
72 215N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13)
72 215N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
96 230N 1141W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 7(27) 2(29)
96 230N 1141W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
96 230N 1141W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 260N 1155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
120 260N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 260N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 60 65 70 70 60 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC