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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007               
2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   3(15)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)   3(21)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  15(18)   7(25)   2(27)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  13(18)   6(24)   1(25)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   8(29)   1(30)   1(31)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  11(24)   5(29)   1(30)   X(30)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1  11(12)  14(26)   4(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P MALDONADO    34  3  15(18)   3(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
P ANGEL        34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   4(24)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 150N  982W 34 37  15(52)   1(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 12 150N  982W 50  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 150N  982W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 159N  995W 34  3  30(33)   9(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 159N  995W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 159N  995W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 168N 1009W 34  X   8( 8)  20(28)   9(37)   3(40)   X(40)   1(41)
 36 168N 1009W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 168N 1009W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 175N 1024W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  15(25)   8(33)   1(34)   1(35)
 48 175N 1024W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 48 175N 1024W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 190N 1055W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   9(31)   3(34)
 72 190N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 72 190N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 96 203N 1083W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)   6(28)
 96 203N 1083W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 96 203N 1083W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 215N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)
120 215N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
120 215N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      55      65      75      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC