Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
WHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE
DAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT.  THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED LOWER.
 
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 315/05.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN
REASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS.  DESPITE
THE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST
IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED.  BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS.  ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A
SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
48-72 HOURS.   DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL.  WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE
WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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